CNN-IBN: Divide The Nation Polls - Terrorism

CNN-IBN carried another instalment of its series of opinion polls on August 11. This one was on terrorism. In the first two instalments IBN’s partner in this hobby, The Hindu, put out the complete data through PDF files on their site. However, in the last two polls (Economy and Terrorism) I have not been able to download the data files. Try downloading the data files at The Hindu’s site here and here. I guess CNN-IBN and The Hindu expected people to be awed and go gaga over these polls instead of being analysed in-depth. So now, you only have clips from their TV show to go by which are scanty in details on the questions, the respondents and so on. One word for their tomfoolery – BUSTED!

Anyway, before I get to this latest instalment on Terror one has to understand the minds that work behind such surveys and polls. Much of it looks like a political position already taken by  the heads of the organisations involved. Now read Rajdeep Sardesai’s anguished tweet over the right wing. I don’t know if I qualify as right-wing yet but here’s what Rajdeep tweeted:

“afzal on death row for 5 years, kasab for 3, but rajiv assassins on death row for 20 years. why no right wing anger? Gnight”

August 11, around 11.30 PM

That is probably one of the most boorish tweets to have come from Rajdeep. I also think Rajdeep was completely unaware how stupid his tweet and his thoughts are. Now, here is a media dealer who keeps shouting hoarse about a lot of things on his channel and yet it didn’t occur to him that he should be the one asking the Nalini question to the UPA. Having failed in that job miserably he thinks the right wing should be making those noises. So tell us Rajdeep have you, as a media dealer, ever asked that question to MMS, PC or Sonia Gandhi? Or have you asked that question on your channel? If not, make it a point immediately that your channel would want the same fate for Nalini as Guru. Having abrogated your responsibility don’t point fingers at some vague right-wing. You should be ashamed that you didn’t actively seek justice for both Nalini and Afzal Guru and then lament that people don’t care about others on the death row. Do you care?

In case Rajdeep forgot,  it was Rajiv’s own family member, Priyanka Gandhi, who met Nalini to seek solace. In case Rajdeep forgot, the Indian right-wing didn't coin the term 'Global Jihad'. Rajdeep has found a place in many of my posts but I thought it would be a good point to remind him of what I think of Nalini. And here are excerpts from some of those posts:

The Scum Of All Spheres

What if Pakistan did hand over the remaining 49 wanted persons from that list of 50? What exactly would our government do? Afzal Guru and Nalini (Rajiv Gandhi’s assassin) are still comfortably lodged in jails.

‘Terror’s Creed..’: MorePoppycock From Rajdeep Sardesai

Killers of Rajiv Gandhi are still in jail. Ajmal Kasab continues to dance around Indian courts every week. Now that, I suppose, is resolve for you……..It is the serious ineptness of the UPA in allowing killers like Afzal Guru or the killers of Rajiv Gandhi to defy justice that spurs anger among citizens

Islamic Terror, Government &The Indian Media

So let’s understand what the 3 stooges have said. The first stooge, PM talks about resolve. Resolve is usually shown by messages or by action. There is neither any message nor any action. Afzal Guru still continues to live in some jail. Killers of Rajiv Gandhi are still in jail.

There, Rajdeep, patriotic Indians are not biased like our media to distinguish justice for terrorists. In fact, the killing of our Prime Minister is as much a war against us as the attack on our parliament. And it is polls like the ones CNN-IBN is doing that attempts to divide the nation with dubious leading questions.

That bit done, let’s get back to CNN-IBN’s dubious surveys. Behind all the silly percentages, not backed by raw data, the only conclusion that Yogendra Yadav came to was “People say terror not linked to religion”.  Frankly, that is a line any lame duck politician will give you free of charge. Why spend all the money on surveys unless it’s free funds? And really, one had to go and ask BJP and Congress workers about their perceptions on terror? That’s really cool. CNN-IBN gets guys from BJP and Congress almost every day on their show. Where’s the need for this exercise?

Historically, terrorism was born out of religion and intolerance. Now, if all the wise men and women at CNN-IBN, CSDS and The Hindu are those who have supposedly read history then they live in denial. Not so long ago there was terrorism by IRA and PIRA in Northern Ireland/UK. The objectives were political but the motive was religion. Surveys that don’t even ponder the political motives of terrorism are usually conducted by ‘useful idiots’. Islam is not just a religion but also a political doctrine. The conquest of territories, conversions, belief in supremacy over other religions are all part of the political and religious agenda. The only religious group to have any influence in the UN is the ‘Organisation of Islamic Countries’ (OIC) who collectively attempt to pass international laws on blasphemy and such religious beliefs. That our media consciously spreads untruths is now out in the open. Don’t claim it to be ‘journalism’ anymore when the only motive is money, money and more money. The best part is getting people like A. Owaisi of MIM to debate terrorism. How clever is that? Groups that are violent against writers like Taslima Nasreen. And terror has no religion?

Rajdeep’s anger at the right-wing is understandable. I think he finds them too intelligent and far too capable of expressing themselves truthfully against CNN-IBN and their close relatives at NDTV, HT and so on. His deputy editor is credited with coining the term ‘Internet Hindus’. Far from seeing it as an affront the right-wingers wear that tag proudly. Not something she would have anticipated. The politicians’ constant endeavour is to divide the nation in every possible way. They wouldn’t have succeeded but for the help of media crooks.

At the very best Yogendra Yadav’s article “People say terror has no religion” might win an essay contest in some primary school or maybe the UN. But if truth were the measure, it fails miserably. These are media-lessons on how to divide the nation.

CNN-IBN: 'Stupefy The Nation' Polls

Gallup is probably the world’s best known poll organisation. It is also one of the most trusted research organisations when it comes to opinion polls. But even polls by Gallup may sometimes not be an indicator of the grave impact of events. This is not to suggest that their polls are flawed or unreliable but that current events and trends may not have such an immediate and influential impact. Therefore, some poll results may end up being merely academic or a test of trivia. In the last dialogue in ‘All the President’s Men’, Ben Bradlee, editor of the Washington Post, chides his two journalists, Woodward and Bernstein, thus: “You know the results of the latest Gallup Poll? Half the country never even heard of the word Watergate. Nobody gives a shit.”  Richard Nixon became the only American President to resign office. That many major scandals since then would be routinely suffixed with ‘gate’ is an impact that could not have been measured by the poll conducted by Gallup at the time.

That’s right; nobody gaves a shit till it finally hits the ceiling. Has corruption hit the ceiling under Manmohan Singh and Sonia Gandhi? Not if you go by the CNN-IBN polls, which is presently airing on a daily basis as ‘State of the nation’ polls. In contrast to the Gallup poll I've mentioned CNN-IBN is busy indulging in trivia when the shit has already hit the ceiling. Much of the poll is based on questions that can best be described as ‘trivia’ or if you’re in school you might get to answer a GK question of that nature. The man leading the venture is Yogendra Yadav. He has a record of sorts for polls that have gone terribly wrong and has ended up with egg on his face on many occasions. When this happens all too frequently one tends to suspect the motive and aim of the poll itself.

I call the whole exercise ‘Stupefy the nation’ polls. The second instalment of their polls is on ‘Corruption’ and here are some interesting facts from the poll. In the previous poll in which Rahul Gandhi was declared the most popular choice for PM, CSDS (who actually conduct these polls) had clarified that over 70% polled are from rural areas.  I’m no poll scientist but let’s look at some of the questions asked in this poll on corruption:

Q. Have you heard of these names? : A. Raja, Kanimozhi, Suresh Kalmadi, Dayanidhi Maran. And the max that have heard of them is 27% and those who actually know them is 22% If you look carefully, none of these are national level politicians in the real sense. Three of them are from a regional party (DMK members from TN) and one Congress member from Maharashtra. Well, why didn’t they ask about Sonia Gandhi, Manmohan Singh, P. Chidambaram or Praful Patel. First, has CNN-IBN given a clean chit to these people? Secondly, the more relevant question would have been if people knew about 2G, CWG, Adarsh and the actual scams rather than names involved in those. There is no need to preclude that only some individuals are involved in the scams as the poll does. This is hardly a popularity contest.

Q. Who is more corrupt – Centre, state or local government? – Now, this is how they fool people by asking a question that measures degree of corruption between various forms of government rather than each government separately. How is the perception of which government is more corrupt relevant at all to the study? It’s like asking you a stupid question: Do you like milk, coffee or tea? Chances are your vote will be divided between the three. In contrast if I asked you if you are a regular coffee drinker or not you are likely to give a more definitive answer. This is nothing but wilfully clouding the issue of corruption to indicate that one is worse than the other and covering up the severity of corruption of each one of them. As a consequence the All-India perception of the centre being corrupt is 35% when the answer to a clear single question would well have been 82%. This is a good hobby to play around with numbers. Alright, so between Manu Sharma and Vikas Yadav you choose who is a bigger murderer.

Q. On Anna Hazare, Ramdev, Lokpal etc ….. How is this relevant at all except for knowledge of trivia or general awareness? And does awareness of these people or their attributes have any significance to corruption? Frankly, I am confident that a huge population from the sample wouldn’t know who Pratibha Patil is. Considering that a majority of the sample is from rural areas it is not even clear if they have access to TV, national newspapers etc. Then, questions about Lokpal etc. Well, if there is a question about Lokpal it would have been worthwhile how many know there is a ‘Prevention of Corruption Act’ or a comparison with it. On a question about the polls Rajdeep Sardesai had tweeted a message to the effect that ‘there is a universe outside of TV channels and Twitter’. That should tell you enough.

Q. Is UPA very corrupt, somewhat corrupt, not much corrupt, not corrupt? Of all the questions this one has to qualify as the most stupid one. Is there a degree of corruption that can somehow be justified or condoned? Is that what these researchers are trying to establish? So in all discussions you will be told about the figure that 28% think UPA is very corrupt. Which clearly attempts to cloud reality and actual facts.(Didn’t they also highlight Rahul Gandhi has popularity of 42% when the real public figure was 19% according to them?) Therefore, the basic message is not everyone really thinks the UPA is that corrupt. Get that? The joke around is that MMS must simply release the names of ministers who are not corrupt. That would be easier. This method of polling almost reduces the exercise to a movie review by a critic who would rate it from 1 star to 5 and reduces the seriousness of the issue of corruption.

When Ajay Maken tried to pin the appointment of Suresh Kalmadi as CWGOC chairman on the NDA the media went to town with his statement. Now that Arun Jaitley has completely destroyed and exposed his lies, the media looks like a fool as usual. The intricate nature of documents and forgery that are used are not easily comprehensible to a majority of our population. That makes it easier for the media to conduct fake and motivated polls to stupefy the nation. You never know, for all that matters the NDA itself might have bid for the CWG hoping to make a kill but then they lost power. The UPA came to power and made a killing with all the scams. There is no need to rate corruption by number of stars as the CNN-IBN poll attempts to do.

From Lensonews

In another poll by Lensonnews website one will find quite a different picture. That is mainly because that poll is only from 5 metro cities. But what Lensonews does is that keeps a clear focus on critical issues rather than trying to flavour the issues with some agenda. There are many issues that a government handles but some are critical to ordinary citizens. To confuse that by multiple choices or choices of degrees is a clearly dishonest poll. That poll also indicates Narendra Modi as a clearly popular choice for the next PM. But that can also be set aside as urban bias

CNN-IBN isn’t yet done with these polls. They will carry one segment each night till independence day. By the time they finish you might find it hard to remember what people’s opinions really are. And, of course, they will tell you Manmohan Singh is still an honourable man.

Poll Pranks

The recent poll by CNN-IBN, presented by The Hindu and conducted by CSDS, led by Yogendra Yadav, puts Rahul Gandhi as the most popular choice as Prime Minister at 19% vote by the population sample and 42% of the UPA sample. (If I missed out anyone involved in the exercise please remind me!) Hang on though, we’ll get to that poll in a few minutes.

First, let’s have some fun. In an episode from the 80s TV series ‘Yes Prime Minister’, Jim Hacker, PM, wants to announce a ‘grand design’ by cancelling introduction of the Trident nuclear missiles and reintroducing conscription (national service). Sir Humphrey, his permanent Dept. Secretary doesn’t want him to make such an announcement and has to turn the cabinet ministers’ opinion against the decision. What follows is an interesting poll exercise between Humphrey and the PM’s assistant, Bernard Woolley. Here are some random and edited excerpts (in blue):

Plot: Jim Hacker has just returned from his visit to the American President in Washington. While the PM is suffering from jet-lag (in other words: sleeping), Bernard Woolley is briefed by Sir Humphrey to stop the PM from announcing his Grand Design (canceling Trident and reintroducing conscription) in his first television broadcast. Jim Hacker sounds out General Howard about canceling Trident. The General is in favour because Britain does not need it. When the General later learns from Sir Humphrey that canceling Trident also would mean a reintroduction of conscription, his opinion about canceling Trident changes immediately.

Bernard goes to see Sir Humphrey and tells him that Hacker is planning to announce his Grand Design in the broadcast. The PM thinks it will be a vote-winner because a Party poll has shown that 64% of the population are in favour of reintroducing conscription. Sir Humphrey advises Bernard to issue another poll to show the majority of the population is against reintroducing conscription. Bernard wonders how this can be done and Sir Humphrey explains it. Sir Humphrey will make sure all the Permanent Secretaries will brief their Ministers to oppose the Grand Design.

After the Cabinet meeting where the Grand Design is discussed Jim Hacker is rather puzzled by the outcome. All his Cabinet colleagues who were previously in favour of it, now all seemed against it. The Foreign Secretary was talking about how it could look as appeasing the Soviets. The Defence Secretary was saying that Britain should have the best and Trident is the best. And the Employment Secretary was raving about how conscription will let an army of trained killers loose on the streets.

Sir Humphrey advises Hacker not to announce his Grand Design in the television broadcast. Bernard gives Hacker the results of the latest poll that shows that 73% of the population are against conscription. Hacker now thinks it is best not to refer to the Grand Design in the speech.

The discussion here between Humphrey and Bernard is a good example of how poll pranks are played out:

Humphrey: "You know what happens: nice young lady comes up to you. Obviously you want to create a good impression, you don't want to look a fool, do you? So she starts asking you some questions: Mr. Woolley, are you worried about the number of young people without jobs?"

Bernard: "Yes"

Humphrey: "Are you worried about the rise in crime among teenagers?"

Bernard: "Yes"

Humphrey: "Do you think there is a lack of discipline in our Comprehensive schools?"

Bernard: "Yes"

Humphrey: "Do you think young people welcome some authority and leadership in their lives?"

Bernard: "Yes"

Humphrey: "Do you think they respond to a challenge?"

Bernard: "Yes"

Humphrey: "Would you be in favour of reintroducing National Service?"

Bernard: "Oh...well, I suppose I might be."

Humphrey: "Yes or no?"

Bernard: "Yes"

Humphrey: "Of course you would, Bernard. After all you told you can't say no to that. So they don't mention the first five questions and they publish the last one."

Bernard: "Is that really what they do?"

Humphrey: "Well, not the reputable ones no, but there aren't many of those. So alternatively the young lady can get the opposite result."

Bernard: "How?"

Humphrey: "Mr. Woolley, are you worried about the danger of war?"

Bernard: "Yes"

Humphrey: "Are you worried about the growth of armaments?"

Bernard: "Yes"

Humphrey: "Do you think there is a danger in giving young people guns and teaching them how to kill?"

Bernard: "Yes"

Humphrey: "Do you think it is wrong to force people to take up arms against their will?"

Bernard: "Yes"

Humphrey: "Would you oppose the reintroduction of National Service?"

Bernard: "Yes"

Humphrey: "There you are, you see Bernard. The perfect balanced sample."

So, you see, just as Sir Humphrey’s questions are motivated by his own policy beliefs most opinion polls in India have similar motivation. Now you will be explained the methodology and how scientific it was and all that. That doesn’t mean the questionnaire used for the ballot itself was scientific. Did you get to see the questionnaire? I did not and then there are direct discussions with respondents that can be safely left to your imagination.

Opinion polls not only need to provide options but also need to take into account realistic probabilities of someone being a real candidate for say, the prime-minister post. By what logic does the survey consider A.B. Vajpayee to be a candidate? The man has retired from politics, has decided not to contest elections again and yet he is an option. This is tom-foolery at its best. In a lesser way L.K. Advani also falls into the same category. I doubt he is considered  a PM candidate even by the BJP or NDA.  In contrast Nitish Kumar, after his great victory last year in Bihar was being touted as a PM candidate by CNN-IBN, is missing from the list. Was he there on the list and did he poll zero votes? If there is some stupid logic in Vajpayee being on the list then I am quite certain even Amitabh Bachchan or Rajnikanth would have polled some votes if they were included. So just like in real elections some candidates are put up just to divide votes, maybe ABV and LKA might be those candidates in this particular poll. Very clever. Now I wonder what the questionnaire actually contained.

Then, having concluded Rahul Gandhi is going to be the most popular choice for PM (whether by secret ballot or just verbal interaction is not clear now) there are other questions kept ready for the respondents. You will find them in pic 2 and 3. Is he trustworthy and pro-poor? What one thought of his Bhatta-Parsaul adventure and even if he is ready and should become PM straightaway. Okay, but when it comes to a poll for candidates from within the BJP itself there is no Advani. So now we should be convinced that LKA is not a preferred candidate within the BJP itself but according to the pollsters is good enough to be a candidate for popular vote by the general public respondents.

Now, if they had these questions about Rahul Gandhi ready for the respondents what about similar questions about other candidates? Nothing? It would be really interesting to see the pro-poor or trustworthy votes for at least one more candidate from the list. If not, I doubt the pollsters even measured all the candidates on the same parameters in the poll.

So all of us Bernards can now see how the perfect balanced population sample was used, with the best questionnaire and with the best and realistic options for PM candidate. Why go through all this painful trouble? CNN-IBN and CSDS should just listen to Digvijay Singh! He declares Rahul Gandhi PM almost every fortnight, doesn’t he? We could have been saved the pranks.